An Important Lesson From the Punjab Congress Spat — for the BJP
The ongoing spat in the Punjab Congress between Navjot Singh Sidhu and Captain Amarinder Singh holds some very important lessons not for the Congress, but for the BJP. The reason I say this is that this is not a new lesson for the Congress — they have repeated the same mistake throughout the years — and will continue to do so until the Gandhi family steps away from the party, and we all know when that will happen…
Firstly, let us understand the significance of Navjot Singh Sidhu meeting with Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi. His meeting with the Gandhis sent a message to Captain Amarinder Singh — that dissent against Amarinder Singh would not only be tolerated — it would be endorsed, and by none other than the darbar of the Congress party, the Gandhi family. Do not take this as a message that Rahul Gandhi does not want Amarinder Singh to be the Congress’s Chief Ministerial candidate — he most certainly does — but, the Gandhis wanted to let Amarinder Singh know where his place was — that his stature and “independence” was getting too big for the Gandhi’s liking. This is not to say that Amarinder Singh has become very popular, but if Congress wins Punjab, it would be seen as solely Amarinder’s victory, not that of the Gandhis, which is seen by the family as an insult to their ego and prowess. The Gandhi family has always felt affronted by any regional or national leader who is seen to gain any sort of credibility or independence of his own, no matter how loyal he or she would be to the family, and this is by no means, a new phenomenon in the Congress party.
Take for example , Manmohan Singh. After UPA 2 came back with a larger majority in 2009, some people began crediting the victory to Manmohan Singh, but giving Manmohan Singh credit for the good work he did was sacrilege in the Congress party! So, a new narrative was brought about by the so-called “intellectual establishment” of the Congress party — that Sonia Gandhi’s MNREGA was the cause of the election victory. However, election analysis speaks much to the contrary. In the 2009 elections, the UPA had a strike rate of a whopping 68% among India’s richest 30%, but just a 35% strike rate among India’s poorest 70%. That clearly tells us that UPA came back to power because of the way Manmohan Singh had handled the economy, because of the rapid economic growth which he continued from the Vajpayee government, because of how he handled the 2008 global economic crisis and so on, not because of MNREGA! So then why did the brigade around Mrs Gandhi at 10 Janpath fabricate such a logical fallacy? It is because they could not handle the credit for the election victory going to anyone else other than the Gandhis! This attempt to quash the stature of leaders who are getting too powerful or “independent” for the liking of the party high command has begun to spread — no prizes for guessing — to the BJP.
BJP state units in various parts of the country are witnessing major factionalism within the party — be it Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Rajasthan, Karnataka, or Uttarakhand. In Karnataka, CM Yediyurappa’s own cabinet ministers and party members have been publicly accusing him of corruption and have demanded his resignation, and these dissenting ministers were left scott free by the BJP high command, with not even a single tweet to reassure everyone that Yediyurappa would remain in power. In Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje, the BJP’s only CM face in the state, has stopped attending party meetings, while aides considered to be close to her have been publicly dissenting against the state BJP, and forming a “Vasundhara Raje Samarthak Manch”. The state BJP has planned to take “strict action” against these aides for conducting “anti-party” activities. Additionally, in Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chouhan is himself facing some serious challenges within the party, especially given that his majority is much slimmer than it used to be. Notice that the factionalism in Rajasthan and Karnataka are against two leaders who are known to have a rather bittersweet relationship with Modi and Amit Shah. Although Shivraj Singh Chouhan may have better relations with the high command, everyone knows that the Modi-Shah duo has someone else in mind for the CM post. Silence from the high command regarding this in fighting in their states which undermines the stature of their own regional leaders, speaks volumes about Modi and Shah’s intentions here. While it is true that Raje, Yediyurappa or Shivraj Chouhan are not extraordinarily popular leaders, BJP does not have any other alternative in those states and it cannot win state elections without a mildly popular regional leader. It has been proven time and again that while Modi’s popularity can sweep national elections, it cannot alone get him a state — for that he needs to have a credible, recognized regional leader as well.
Take the example of Odisha. The state had the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha election conducted simultaneously. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, with Modi as its face, the BJP got a vote share of 38%, however, in the same election where the voter cast 2 votes on the same day — one for the state elections and one for the nation — the BJP got 32% vote share in the state elections which happens on the same day. That tells you that the voter transforms his affection and liking for the Prime Minister into a vote for BJP at centre, but it is not the same ball game in the states, which Narendra Modi must learn.
The BJP cannot hope to just sweep Lok Sabha to run the country — winning the Rajya Sabha is still crucial to governance and the BJP cannot hope to win a majority while cutting its regional leaders to size. The smartest parties are those which learn from their rival’s mistakes, and BJP must do the same.
By Aryan Prakash
Views are personal
